What percentage of HVAC replacement estimates should my company be closing?<\/h2>\n
An ACCA and Farmington Consulting Group survey of more than 1,000 contractors, reported by ACHR News in February 2026, found HVAC contractors closing 43% of their install jobs on average, and residential contractors 45%, so closing a little under half of your replacement estimates is about typical. Lead source moves that number a lot: ServiceTitan’s Contractor Playbook (viewed October 2026) sets a target of 25-35% for estimates that come from marketing leads but 75-85% for leads your own technicians set. The benchmark that matters most is your own close rate, measured by lead source and by salesperson and compared with your last quarter.<\/p>\n
Close rate is the last step between your marketing spend and a sold system, which is why we judge replacement marketing on cost per sold job, not cost per lead. Estimate follow-up and reminders are what our follow-up automation<\/a> handles, and it plugs into any of our HVAC marketing<\/a> packages. The HVAC lead generation guide<\/a> covers getting leads that actually book, and the rest of the HVAC marketing questions<\/a> library goes question by question.<\/p>\n The most useful recent number comes from the Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) and Farmington Consulting Group, who surveyed more than a thousand contractors nationwide for their “Contractor of the Future” study. As reported by ACHR News on February 10, 2026 (Survey Reveals Strategies to Boost HVAC Close Rates by Double Digits<\/a>):<\/p>\n Read those with care. It’s a survey of what contractors reported, not an audit of their books, and the article doesn’t say how each contractor defined an install opportunity or counted a close. It’s an average, so plenty of shops sit well above and below it. And it blends every kind of lead, from a homeowner who clicked an ad to a repeat customer whose tech flagged a twenty-year-old system. Use it as a rough sense of typical, not as a target.<\/p>\n Because a homeowner who already trusts you is easier to sell than a stranger who found you an hour ago and has two other companies coming out. ServiceTitan’s Contractor Playbook (KPIs and Tracking chapter, undated, viewed October 2026) lists these sales closing-ratio targets for a comfort adviser, by where the lead came from (KPIs and Tracking<\/a>):<\/p>\n The same table puts the overall average target above 65%. These are targets from a software vendor’s guide, not measured averages, but the shape is the point: a marketing lead closes at a fraction of the rate of a lead your own tech set up. So if most of your estimates come from ads and search, a blended number will look low next to a shop that runs mostly on its maintenance base, even if your advisors are doing everything right. Compare your marketing-lead close rate with marketing-lead targets, and your tech-lead rate with tech-lead targets.<\/p>\n Sold replacement estimates divided by replacement estimates run, for the same group of estimates. Three decisions make the number trustworthy:<\/p>\n Keep repair quotes out of it. A tech quoting a capacitor on a service call is a different sale, and mixing the two hides how your replacement estimates are actually doing.<\/p>\n Each one counts a little differently, which is why the numbers rarely match a spreadsheet:<\/p>\n Whatever you use, write down the definition and stick with it. A close rate you can compare month to month beats a precise one you can’t.<\/p>\n Yes, once each person has run enough estimates for the number to settle. Jobber’s quotes report filters by salesperson, Housecall Pro’s estimate reports group by employee, and ServiceTitan defines close rate per sales technician. The comparison is only fair if each person gets a similar mix of leads. An advisor who runs most of the technician leads will beat one who runs cold ad leads, so compare each person by lead source before drawing conclusions.<\/p>\n A small shop with one advisor (often the owner) can still use this. Compare yourself with your own last quarter, by lead source, and look at the lost estimates for patterns.<\/p>\n More than most shops have in a month. With a small number of estimates, one sale more or less swings the rate by several points, so a single good or bad month says very little. In our judgement, look at a rolling quarter, or at least a few dozen estimates, before deciding your close rate has changed. Track it monthly to spot problems early, but make decisions on the longer view.<\/p>\n Also give each estimate time to sign. Replacements often close days or weeks after the visit, so a month’s rate keeps climbing after the month ends. How long an HVAC lead takes to become a booked job<\/a> covers that lag and how to measure it.<\/p>\n The ACCA and Farmington survey points to two habits, as reported by ACHR News (ACHR News<\/a>):<\/p>\n Those are survey links, not proof that adding options will lift your rate by the same amount. But they line up with what a replacement buyer needs: clear choices, a way to pay, and a reason to trust the company doing the install. If you advertise financing, be careful with specific payment terms, which can trigger federal disclosure rules; marketing replacements differently from repairs<\/a> covers what to watch for.<\/p>\n The rest is follow-up. Many estimates are lost to silence rather than to a competitor: the written estimate goes out late, nobody calls back, and the homeowner signs with whoever stayed in touch. The estimate follow-up schedule in how fast to respond to new leads<\/a> is a good starting point.<\/p>\n Not always. In our judgement, a close rate far above your peers can mean your advisors are excellent, or it can mean something worth checking:<\/p>\n Look at close rate next to average sold ticket and gross margin per job. A rate that rises while the average ticket falls usually means discounting, not better selling.<\/p>\n Sort the lost estimates first. If many were never really buyers (wrong service, out of area, renters, people collecting prices with no plan to replace), the leak is upstream in who your marketing attracts, and attracting fewer price shoppers<\/a> covers that side. If they were real buyers who chose someone else or went quiet, it’s the estimate itself or the follow-up.<\/p>\n A short reason on every lost estimate (price, chose a competitor, decided to repair, financing, no response) turns this from an argument into a count. Most field-service software has a lost-reason or outcome field; use it every time.<\/p>\n Emergency replacements and planned replacements are different sales.<\/strong> A homeowner whose system died in July is deciding under pressure and often closes quickly. One planning ahead in the spring has time to collect several quotes. If your software lets you tag the reason for the estimate, split the close rate on it, because the season changes your mix.<\/p>\n Your service department is your best lead source.<\/strong> The playbook targets above put technician leads far ahead of marketing leads. Techs who note system age and condition on every repair call, and an office that follows up before the next season, feed your advisors the estimates that close most.<\/p>\n Residential and commercial don’t compare.<\/strong> In the same survey, commercial contractors closed 38% against 45% for residential. If you do both, track them apart.<\/p>\n A free visibility audit checks the Google profile, reviews, site and tracking, and shows what to fix first.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n These numbers are made up to show the math, not a benchmark for your market. Say you spend $3,600 a month on marketing aimed at replacements, and it produces 30 in-home estimates.<\/p>\n Same ads, same budget, same leads: three more systems sold a month, and every one of them came from better options, financing or follow-up, not from more marketing. That’s why we look at close rate before recommending a bigger ad budget. Raising spend into a weak close rate buys more estimates that don’t sell.<\/p>\n It’s above the 43% average for install jobs in the ACCA and Farmington survey. Whether it’s good for you depends on your lead mix: it’s strong for mostly marketing leads and low for mostly technician leads.<\/p>\n In ServiceTitan, close rate is about selling estimates, while conversion rate is about revenue and invoices. Other tools use “conversion” for quotes, so check the definition before comparing.<\/p>\n Yes. Count it against the estimate where the homeowner got the price. Otherwise follow-up visits make your first-visit numbers look worse than they are.<\/p>\n No. Track them separately. A tech quoting a part on a service call is a different sale, and mixing the two hides how your replacement estimates are doing.<\/p>\n Monthly to spot problems early, quarterly to make decisions. A single month is too few estimates for most shops to tell a real change from noise.<\/p>\n No. The ACHR News report covers close rates, options, financing and warranties, not how long each sale took. Measure your own estimate-to-signed time from the dates in your software.<\/p>\n We'll look at how you show up locally and where calls are leaking, then send you a plain-English breakdown.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n A 2026 survey put HVAC install close rates at 43% on average. Why lead source changes the target, and how to measure your own close rate the right way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","ll_review_state":"approved","ll_template_version":"v1","ll_sources":"[\"https:\/\/www.achrnews.com\/articles\/165799-survey-reveals-strategies-to-boost-hvac-close-rates-by-double-digits\", \"https:\/\/www.servicetitan.com\/guides\/contractor-playbook\/kpi-tracking\", \"https:\/\/help.servicetitan.com\/docs\/technicians-close-or-conversion-rate-does-not-look-correct\", \"https:\/\/help.getjobber.com\/en\/articles\/quotes-report\/\", \"https:\/\/help.housecallpro.com\/en\/articles\/6499730-conversion-rate-reporting\", \"https:\/\/help.housecallpro.com\/en\/articles\/9440523-estimates-on-jobs-report\"]","ll_faq":"[{\"q\": \"Is a 50% close rate good for HVAC replacements?\", \"a\": \"It's above the 43% average for install jobs in the ACCA and Farmington survey. Whether it's good for you depends on your lead mix: it's strong for mostly marketing leads and low for mostly technician leads.\"}, {\"q\": \"What's the difference between close rate and conversion rate?\", \"a\": \"In ServiceTitan, close rate is about selling estimates, while conversion rate is about revenue and invoices. Other tools use \\\"conversion\\\" for quotes, so check the definition before comparing.\"}, {\"q\": \"Should a sale on a later visit count toward the first estimate?\", \"a\": \"Yes. Count it against the estimate where the homeowner got the price. Otherwise follow-up visits make your first-visit numbers look worse than they are.\"}, {\"q\": \"Do repair quotes belong in my replacement close rate?\", \"a\": \"No. Track them separately. A tech quoting a part on a service call is a different sale, and mixing the two hides how your replacement estimates are doing.\"}, {\"q\": \"How often should I review close rates?\", \"a\": \"Monthly to spot problems early, quarterly to make decisions. A single month is too few estimates for most shops to tell a real change from noise.\"}, {\"q\": \"Does the survey say how long it took those jobs to close?\", \"a\": \"No. The ACHR News report covers close rates, options, financing and warranties, not how long each sale took. Measure your own estimate-to-signed time from the dates in your software.\"}]","ll_cluster_id":"hvac-0110","ll_hub":"hvac","ll_lang":"en","ll_last_regenerated":"2026-10-24","tldr":"What close rate do HVAC contractors actually get on installs?<\/h2>\n
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Why does lead source change what counts as a good close rate?<\/h2>\n
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How do I calculate my close rate?<\/h2>\n
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How do ServiceTitan, Jobber and Housecall Pro measure close rate?<\/h2>\n
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Should I track close rate by salesperson?<\/h2>\n
How many estimates do I need before my close rate means anything?<\/h2>\n
What raises the close rate on replacement estimates?<\/h2>\n
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![\"HVAC](\"https:\/\/www.limitless-local.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/hvac-technician-inspecting-older-furnace-service-call.webp\")
<\/figure>\nIs a very high close rate always a good sign?<\/h2>\n
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Is a low close rate a marketing problem or a sales problem?<\/h2>\n
What's different for HVAC companies<\/h2>\n
Not sure which of these is costing you jobs?<\/h4>\n
A worked example: what close rate does to cost per sold system<\/h2>\n
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![\"Bar](\"https:\/\/www.limitless-local.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/good-close-rate-for-hvac-replacement-estimates-close-rate-targets-by-lead-source-bars.webp\")
<\/figure>\nFrequently asked questions<\/h2>\n
Is a 50% close rate good for HVAC replacements?<\/h3>\n
What's the difference between close rate and conversion rate?<\/h3>\n
Should a sale on a later visit count toward the first estimate?<\/h3>\n
Do repair quotes belong in my replacement close rate?<\/h3>\n
How often should I review close rates?<\/h3>\n
Does the survey say how long it took those jobs to close?<\/h3>\n
Key takeaways<\/h2>\n
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Want a second set of eyes on your setup?<\/h4>\n
More in this section<\/h2>\n
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Sources<\/h2>\n
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